About this new market report

After difficult times over the last three years the mobile industry now faces a happier future. Uptake of advanced handsets and value-added non-voice services is growing and mobile network operators worldwide are inspired by the success they have seen in Japan and South Korea. However, although many network operators are launching 3G networks in 2004 and 2005, full availability and mass adoption of 3G services still remains some way in the future. For many companies it is important to understand how to make money out of mobile data services in the immediate future, using the 2G and 2.5G networks operating today. This report looks at the mobile data services that are available today, in 2004, the extent of uptake of those services and the strategies operators, applications developers and content and brand owners are using to drive revenue and ARPU growth from subscribers.

We believe that 2004-2006 will be a period of maturing of 2.5G technology and an emerging 3G marketplace. Around 2006, the mature markets will reach an optimum penetration level in terms of both handsets as well as services offered on these platforms, and we believe the mobile data industry will enjoy a short boom period in 2006-2008. In essence, around this period MNOs will start reaping the benefits of investments in VAS and technology, with steadily rising revenues and profits from non-voice services, combined with booming voice and SMS markets in territories such as China, India and Latin America. 2006 and beyond will again be a period of maturing of 3G technology with penetration levels and service take-up reaching full maturity by 2009 or 2010. Thus we estimate that 2.5G and 3G will undergo a 4-year transitioning cycle with significant investment and uncertain revenue models in the beginning and longer-term gain over the next 3-4 years. Greater bandwidth and speed (4G and 5G) may combine with the base technology that 3G provides, driving service take-up forward in leaps and bounds once the initial mass-market penetration reaches a suitable level.

The shift to non-voice services will be a challenging time for network operators, who will need to closely manage relationships up and down the value chain. MNOs need to ensure that content partners and application developers get a fair share of revenues to stimulate constant development and roll-out of new, innovative and compelling content and services. Failure to provide the end users with a constant supply of new and exciting content and services will cost operators dearly in churn and loss of the most valuable subscribers. Yet while providing subscribers with plenty of choice, operators must also ensure that they do not simply become ‘bit-pipe’ carriers, invisible to the end user. The period 2003-2008 offers an exciting "window of opportunity" to network operators and other players in the value chain, as 2G networks grow to service 2 billion consumers across the globe, 2.5G networks will enable those subscribers to access a wide selection of new non-voice services, building consumer familiarity that will prove to be the driving force behind 3G mass adoption. Although 3G networks are coming on line now, for the most part of the 1.4 billion mobile subscribers around today, 3G will not be a mass market reality until nearer the end of the decade, and operators must concentrate on building the use of non-voice services now, that will drive 3G to a successful future.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Definitions of Available Services Extent of Deployments and Service Take-up of Mobile Data Services: 2004
Market Size and Penetration Level for Service Categories
Worldwide Summary of Mobile Data Deployments and Usage

Market Trends and Consumer Preferences
Trends in the Consumer Mobile Data Market
Trends in the Enterprise Mobile Data Market
Trends in Mobile Content and Application Development
Trends in Data Tariffs, Pricing and Billing
Consumer Behaviour

Operator Go-to-Market Strategies
Services Offered by Key Network Operators
Vodafone
T-Mobile International
Cingular Wireless
SK Telecom
América Móvil
Other MNO Strategies
Summary and Conclusions

Case Studies
Case Study 1: MNOs Perspective – mmO2
Case Study 2: Content Owners - Walt Disney Internet Group
Case Study 3: Software or Application Developer - SurfKitchen
Case Study 4: Enterprise Application - Vodafone Mobile Connect Card
Case Study 5: Application Portal Failure - Iobox

Conclusions and Recommendations
Market Summary
The Road Ahead

Appendix
Glossary

For a detailed Table of Contents including List of Figures and List of Tables, please click here.

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