About this market study

In mid-2005 we published our highly-acclaimed and extremely popular report 'Mobile Messaging Futures 2005-2010'. Following the success of that report, we can now offer you an all-new report 'Mobile Messaging Futures 2007-2012', which offers a complete self-contained analysis of the worlds mobile messaging markets, complete with commentary on the forecasts we made in 2005, including tracking those forecasts against our new forecast data and highlighting what changes have occurred, and why.

Mobile messaging is an integral and vital part of the mobile industry and contributes significantly to worldwide total mobile service revenues. This extensive new Portio Research report offers a complete study of worldwide mobile messaging markets, forecasting SMS and MMS traffic volumes and revenues for the period 2007-2012, and forecasting mobile email and IM user growth for the same period. It provides a detailed analysis and a regional market summary of the mobile markets of Europe, Asia Pacific, North America, Latin America, Africa and Middle East, specifying messaging revenues and volumes in each market and identifying key countries in each region. The report studies the major categories of mobile messaging, i.e., short messaging service (SMS), multimedia messaging service (MMS), mobile e-mail and mobile instant messaging (IM).

Key features of the report include the following:

• Summary of the worldwide mobile market; comparative summary of the markets in each major geographic region
• Evolution of mobile messaging
• Current and future prospects of the SMS industry, including forecast traffic volumes and service revenues
• Analysis of the MMS market’s strong future prospects
• In-depth analysis of the rapidly growing mobile e-mail and mobile IM services
• Regional market summary and forecasts of SMS and MMS growth, in terms of traffic volumes and revenues

The worldwide population is expected to rise from approximately 6.55 billion to approximately 7 billion between 2006 and 2012, and at the same time we forecast the worldwide mobile subscriber base to also increase from 2.65 billion to 4.81 billion. Asian markets, which are growing at a staggering pace, are expected to account for 50 percent of the total worldwide subscriber base by 2008. Also, the rise in mobile penetration in Latin America and Africa will contribute significantly towards the overall growth of the mobile market.

Although revenues from voice calls still comprise 80 percent of worldwide total mobile revenues, operators globally are focussing on data services for increasing their average revenue per user (ARPU). Of the various data services available, while attracting none of the glamour as a leading product in most MNOs service portfolio's, SMS actually accounts for approximately 75 to 80 percent of non-voice service revenues worldwide.

After a slow start, MMS has also started experiencing significant growth in several regions, especially in North America. Since interoperability agreements were finally put into place in 2005, the North American market has enjoyed rapid growth in MMS traffic. While North America and Europe now enjoy growing MMS traffic and revenues, MMS is still quite weak in much of Asia and other regions, namely Latin America and most of Africa and the Middle East.

Apart from SMS and MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile IM are showing strong future growth prospects in some geographic regions. Apart from North America and Europe, mobile e-mail is expected to grow significantly in the mobile markets of the Asia Pacific region. The success of mobile e-mail is largely driven by the growth of more advanced handheld devices, such as PDAs and smartphones, so obviously growth of these services will be broadly restricted to the wealthier, more advanced markets for the immediate future.

This study takes an in-depth look at worldwide mobile messaging markets, with an aim to offer you the facts and figures to enable operators, content developers, aggregators and handset vendors to identify the key mobile messaging services of the future and the key markets where those services will flourish.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Introduction to Mobile Messaging
Evolution of Mobile Technology
Evolution of Mobile Services
- Short Message Service (SMS)
- Multimedia Message Service (MMS)
- Mobile E-mail
- Mobile Instant Messaging (MIM)

Worldwide Mobile Messaging Market
Worldwide Mobile Market Growth
- Subscriber Growth and Penetration
- Regional Comparative Summary

Mobile Messaging Services – Worldwide
- SMS
- MMS
- Mobile E-mail (Demand Side)
- Mobile E-mail (Supply Side)
- Mobile IM
- Video Messaging
- Video Mail
- Unified Messaging

Messaging Solution Vendors
- Key Vendors – Enterprise Mobile E-mail
- Key Vendors – Consumer Mobile E-mail
- Key Vendors – Video Mail and Unified Messaging

Mobile Messaging Services – Regional Outlook
- North America
- Latin America
- Africa and Middle East
- Asia Pacific
- Europe

Conclusions and Recommendations

Appendices
Glossary
Portio Research Classifications
Companies mentioned in this report
About the Authors

List of Figures
Figure 1: Evolution of Mobile Network Technology
Figure 2: Growth of Data Services with Evolution of Mobile Technology
Figure 3: Traditional SMS Delivery Model
Figure 4: SMSC Delivery Model Based on Intelligent Network Approach
Figure 5: MMS Delivery Model
Figure 6: Worldwide Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2012)
Figure 7: Worldwide SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 8: Worldwide Growth of P2P Messaging (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 9: Worldwide Growth of A2P Messaging (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 10: Worldwide SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 11: Worldwide A2P and P2P SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 12: Worldwide MMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 13: Worldwide MMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 14: Worldwide Mobile E-mail Subscribers (In Millions, 2005-2012)
Figure 15: Enterprise Mobile E-mail Solutions Market Share (H1 2006)
Figure 16: Worldwide Mobile IM Subscribers (In Millions, 2005-2012)
Figure 17: Video Mail Solution
Figure 18: Video Mail Solution Vendors Sales Channel
Figure 19: Relationship Between UM Server and Components of Communication Systems
Figure 20: RIM: Annual Revenues and Blackberry Subscribers (2001-2006)
Figure 21: Revenue Earned by Telecom Products – Worldwide (2005)
Figure 22: Revenue – Openwave (2004-2006)
Figure 23: North America – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 24: North America – SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 25: North America – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 26: North America – SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 27: North America – MMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 28: North America – MMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 29: Latin America – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 30: Latin America – SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 31: Latin America – MMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 32: Latin America – MMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 33: Major Latin America SMS Markets – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2004-2006)
Figure 34: Africa and Middle East – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 35: Africa and Middle East – SMS Revenues (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 36: Africa and Middle East – MMS Traffic Volumes (In Millions, 2005-2012)
Figure 37: Africa and Middle East – MMS Revenues (In USD Millions, 2005-2012)
Figure 38: Key Africa/Middle East SMS Markets – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2004-2006)
Figure 39: Asia Pacific – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 40: Asia Pacific – SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 41: Asia Pacific – MMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 42: Asia Pacific – MMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 43: Key Asia Pacific SMS Markets – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2004-2006)
Figure 44: Europe – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 45: Europe – SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 46: Europe – A2P and P2P SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 47: Europe – A2P and P2P SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 48: Europe – MMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 49: Europe – MMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Figure 50: Key European SMS Markets – SMS Traffic Volumes (In Billions, 2004-2006)

List of Tables
Table 1: Forecast Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Growth, 2002-2012 (In Millions)
Table 2: Total Regional SMS Traffic (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Table 3: Total Regional SMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Table 4: Total Regional MMS Traffic (In Billions, 2005-2012)
Table 5: Total Regional MMS Revenue (In USD Billions, 2005-2012)
Table 6: Different Type of Mobile E-mail Solutions
Table 7: Worldwide Smart Device (Smartphone and PDA) Shipments (2006-2012)
Table 8: Forecast Worldwide Mobile E-mail Subscriber (In Millions, 2005-2012)
Table 9: Handset Vendors and Operating System Providers
Table 10: Forecast Worldwide Mobile IM Subscriber (In Millions, 2005-2012)
Table 11: Worldwide Video Messaging Subscribers and Revenue (2004-2009)
Table 12: Segments of Unified Communications
Table 13: Revenue Segmentation by Products (FY 2005)
Table 14: MMS Users as a Percentage of Total Number of Subscribers (2003-2005)
Table 15: SMS Intensity – SMS-per-subscriber-per-month (2005-2012)
Table 16: SMS Intensity – SMS-per-subscriber-per-month (2006) for Key SMS Markets
Table 17: SMS Intensity for the top 15 SMS-carrying MNOs (2005)
Table 18: SMS Intensity for the top 15 SMS-carrying MNOs (4Q 2005)

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