About this new market study
2004 and 2005 have been remarkable years in the mobile industry and worldwide growth has been immense. The total number of mobile subscribers worldwide has grown from 1.38 billion at the start of 2004 to over 2.12 billion at the end of 2005. During this period, Africa boasted the fastest growth rate of any region of the world except Eastern Europe, soaring from only a little over 60 million subscribers at the end of 2003 to break the 100 million barrier in 2005 and close out the year at approximately 113.5 million mobile subscribers, almost doubling the total size of the market in just 2 years.
During the same time frame the only other region in the world to match that growth rate was Central & Eastern Europe, but there is one very big difference between these two regions; Eastern Europe is now approaching saturation and the region is forecast to grow by only 79 million further net additions in the next 6 years, while Africa represents a vast continent of almost a billion people, and barely 14% of them currently have a mobile phone. We forecast another 265 million subscriptions across Africa in the coming 6 years, the period covered by this study.
Many of the mobile markets in Africa have gone through immense changes in recent years, evolving from state-run monopolies to competitive growth markets. Much of the rapid growth in the last 2 or 3 years has been spurred by this liberalization and now these markets are evolving from this explosive growth phase into a more controlled, more mature phase, and with this phase comes a change of focus for many operators in these markets.
As subscriber numbers grow, so operators need to start focusing on ARPU, churn and the growth of non-voice value added services, and the inevitable consolidation activity that is associated with any large, fast growing, maturing market. In the "land grab" for Africa's hundreds of millions of mobile subscribers, key regional players such as MTN Group, Celtel (now part of MTC) and Vodacom are spreading their wings and building their portfolios across the continent. For example, MTN acquired operations in Cote d'lvoire and Zambia during the second half of 2005, and Celtel acquired a controlling stake in Madacom in Madagascar at the end of the year. However, so far Orange is the only one of the big global brands to make their mark on multiple African markets.
This report offers you a snapshot of the African mobile market during the second half of 2005 and offers forecasts for growth across the continent.
The report includes detailed country profiles for some of the key markets in Africa, namely:-
- South Africa
- Nigeria
- Morocco
- Egypt
- Kenya
- Tunisia
This report also includes company profiles of some of those key players:-
- Celtel
- France Telecom
- Millicom
- MTN
- Orascom Telecom
- Vodacom
The fast growth of mobile services in Africa has been enabled, largely, by the introduction of GSM-based services, which have provided a cost effective means of communication compared to fixed-line telephony, cost effective for both network operators and for consumers. Though mobile analogue networks were present in some countries before the launch of GSM networks, they failed to proliferate due to a number of reasons, such as the high cost of handsets and service charges. By example, ETACS was introduced in Kenya in 1993 but had only 20,000 subscribers by the end of 1999.
The availability of pre-paid billing has been another major reason for the fast growth in the number of subscribers in the region because the majority of the population lie in a low per-capita income group, and this has given these people easy access to mobile services by paying at their own convenience. Pre-paid subscriptions account for nearly 95 percent of total mobile subscriptions across the region.
Total mobile subscribers in the region are expected to increase at a CAGR of approximately 22.5 percent during 2005-2011, resulting in a mobile subscriber base of over 378 million by the end of 2011. The corresponding mobile penetration rate for the region is forecast to increase from 14 percent at the end of 2005 to almost 42 percent by the end of 2011.
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